When we first started coming to PMC 40+ years ago, California (at least the southern half of California) was in the middle of a "dry spell" -- not really a drought, but significantly less rainfall than average. The overall precipitation for the whole region had been below average for a time, but the greater Frazier Park/Pine Mountain Club area got enough snow and rainfall to keep the lakes and ponds near full year-round, and the creeks and streams running all year as well. The small lake in Cuddy Valley always had plenty of water in it; Cuddy Creek ran all year from Lake of the Woods through Frazier Park and Lebec, all the way to Castac (now Tejon) Lake, which rarely ran dry, even in late summer--without supplements from the California Water Project. Bernina and Woodland Creeks ran full enough to make a white-water waterfall at the bottom of Woodland Drive at Mil Potrero Highway. The pinion pines from the top of the S-curves all the way to the "Y' had long strands of Spanish moss on their north-facing sides. Water flowed on the west side of Lampkin Park, and the area where the new Fire Station is was a swamp. The creek flowed under Mil Potrero Highway into the upper pond on the golf course, out to the second pond, and into Fern's Lake. The creek flowed over the dam, and then spread out into the lower pasture, much of which was like a grassy bog. By the time the creek passed the gate at the entrance to the canyon trail, it was usually too big (wide) to jump across without getting wet (except in the latest months of summer.) The area to the north of Mil Potrero Highway at the turnout past Yellowstone that is now a grassy area used to be a swamp, as well.
But the winters even then were far from "wet". Most of the precipitation came in the form of snow, and usually in one or two big storms. In March, 1974, we got 4-5 feet of snow in 36 hours (at the Clubhouse elevation), and in January 1976, we got 6+ feet in 48 hours. It snowed all the way down to Castaic and Wheeler Ridge on I-5. The Interstate was closed for four days. Cuddy Valley Road was snowed over at Lake of the Woods (by Mike's Pizza), with drifts higher than a jacked-up 4x4. Three guys in their trucks almost froze to death when they ran into the wall of snow and got stuck. It was a white-out, and they tried to keep warm in their stalled trucks, not being able to see the occupied homes just a few yards away.
County Roads Department was able to make Cuddy Valley Rd. passable after 4 days by requisitioning a snow-blower from eastern Kern County. After that storm, the weather got extremely dry for several months, well into 1977. The climatologists predicted a long-lasting, cold, period of drought, that could last as long as twenty years or more. (!) The "New Ice-Age" they called it. (!)
This is why so many of us old-timers ☺ scoff at "climate-change" or whatever. After the weather gurus had predicted an extended period of drought, in October, 1977, a new weather phenomenon reared it's infantile head: :EL NIÑO !!! It rained, and RAINED, and R-A-I-N-E-D. Over 12 inches in two and a half days (at 5500 feet), then a few days with showers, then more storms--for weeks. The creeks flooded, the highways had mud slides and rock slides. San Emigdio Creek flooded the canyon almost wall-to-wall, and the ensuing rush of water washed out Highway 166 west of Interstate 5- miles and miles to the north. By Spring, the water (mostly from the Kern River) had flooded all the fields east of Highway 99 almost to Mettler. At that time, you could have taken a small boat from Sandrini Road north and sailed through to the remains of Tulare Lake, and on to the San Joaquin River out to the San Francisco Bay!
In the middle of this first El Niño, in December, 1977, a terrible windstorm struck Kern County. A cold, dry East wind blew down off the desert, trying to fill a huge low-pressure cell off the western coast. Gathering speed and tons of dust as it headed west, in places it topped 200 miles-per-hour as it crossed the hills at the base of the Grapevine, stripping the topsoil from the northeast faces of the hills. (If you look at the hillsides near the top of the hills on both sides of the highway just before you get to Grapevine going south, you can still see the lateral streaks on the land where the soil was stripped away). The choking dust trapped many drivers in their vehicles on the Interstate, and on the highways to the west towards Maricopa--some for almost two days. The dust choked the engines and stopped the cars and trucks in their tracks. To my knowledge, no one died, but in the aftermath of the windstorm, more El Niño rain caused the barren hillsides to turn to mudflows, and a woman driving on the freeway was swept to her death as her car was trapped in a huge mudflow and crammed into a huge drainpipe. (The vertical gullies from those flows are also still visible today on those same hillsides, and in the lower parts of Grapevine Canyon.)
The rainy weather had another effect that winter-- it didn't snow--or at least it didn't stick-- in and around PMC. What snow fell was so wet that it melted right away. There was a small accumulation of snow on the very highest streets, but hardly enough to require a snowplow. On top of the mountain was a different story: more than 26 FEET of snow accumulated on the upper slopes of Mount Pinos, Sawmill Mountain, and Cerro Noroeste.
El Niño-type weather patterns occurred in the early eighties and again in the early nineties, with similar results--flooding, mud/rock slides, downed trees, etc. Frazier Park and Lake of the Woods had to shore up the banks of Cuddy Creek through those communities with the use of "gabions" --large rocks enclosed in heavy wire cages that held them in place against the flowing water. Otherwise, the rushing water would so undermine the creek banks causing their collapse, and the structures above would end up in the creek. (some did). The remaining gabions can be seen at the edge of the creek, on the north side, just after crossing the most western bridge in Frazier Park. Cuddy Creek has been dry for so long, it's hard to believe that that much water ever flowed there. For a perspective on extreme rainfall and streamflows: Piru Creek, which drains some of the area directly to the south of PMC, on the south side of Mt. Pinos (primarily Lockwood Valley), has some historical streamflow data available (1938 to 1969). In 1969, which was a wet year, but not near as wet as 1977-78, the peak stream flow of Piru Creek was over 35,000 cubic feet per second. That's about 262 thousand gallons per second.
When will the next wet period happen? If I knew, I'd say so. The climatologists were predicting an El Niño for this winter-- In May, they gave it better than a 70% chance. The last I looked, the chance was under 50 % (a weak bet at best), so time will tell. Historically, 20- and even 50-year droughts were not unheard-of in this region. (Let's hope not.)
We could always ask the Chumash to do a traditional rain dance. I've been told it was always 100% effective--- they didn't stop dancing until it rained.☺
